14 December 2008
The latter two arrangements have capacity restrictions. Although that with Romania is described as "open skies" there is uncertainty about passenger capacity for fifth freedom services.
11 December 2008
An open exchange of third/fourth freedom rights would be followed by further exchanges of rights in three additional phases if there is a progressive opening up of airline investment opportunities. Phase two would provide for seventh freedom cargo opportunities, phase three for fifth freedom (beyond) opportunities and phase four for an exchange of cabotage rights.
Media coverage on 10 December included stories in the Globe and Mail, and the Star (HT to Aviation Law Prof Blog). On 9 December there were also stories in the Financial Post NEW and on CBC NEW.
09 December 2008
The term "super spike" in relation to oil price movements was reported on 21 May 2008 by the International Herald Tribune to have been used by a Goldman Sachs analyst, Arjun Murti, who was predicting that the price of oil could go as high as US$200 and would stay above US$100 into 2011. Bloomberg reported on 6 May 2008 that Murti first used the term "super spike" in March 2005.
Murti's latest views on the price of oil were covered in a 12 December 2008 post NEW on the Alphaville weblog from the Financial Times.
04 December 2008
30 November 2008
Okay, so how would we work out to what extent the proposed increase in the Air Passenger Duty (APD) is a “tax grab” and/or protectionism as some have alleged or could have environmental legitimacy (see previous post)?
- take the distance and emissions of CO2 for a passenger travelling one-way London-Auckland in economy class from the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) carbon emissions calculator at: http://www2.icao.int/public/cfmapps/carbonoffset/carbon_calculator.cfm which gives an answer of 18,335 Km generating about 1,341.73 Kg of CO2
- take the price of carbon emissions on 26 November 2008 from Point Carbon at: http://www.pointcarbon.com/ which gave a value of €15.70 per tonne
- do a conversion from Euros to Pounds giving £13.36 per tonne and multiple that by 1.342 tonnes
- and come up with £17.93 compared with the current Air Passenger Duty (APD) of £40, the proposed APD of £55 from 1 November 2009 and the proposed APD of £85 from 2010 (see: http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/pbr2008/pbrn20.pdf ) or do I misunderstand the basis of how HM Treasury arrived at the rates for this “green” tax?
The 61-page July 2008 edition on pages 59-60 refers to New Zealand's air services relationships with Canada, the European Union, the Philippines, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Turkey and the United Kingdom. It gives the dates of recent negotiations and also lists me as the official contact for these.
The container started out in the UK with a shipment of Scotch whisky bound for China and is now headed for the USA full of consumer goods (HT to Transport Blog).
An excellent source of data for this growing problem is the International Chamber of Commerce's International Maritime Bureau which operates a Piracy Reporting Centre based in Malaysia. The Centre maintains a live piracy map of all such incidents around the world.
In his speech the UK Chancellor said:
"As the Government has demanded, aviation will now be included in the emissions trading scheme from 2012.
This is a major step towards achieving our environmental objective of reducing the impact of aviation on climate change.
It has enabled me to look again at our proposals for reforming air passenger duty.
Mr Speaker, last year, there was cross-party support for a reform of air passenger duty to a tax per plane.
As much as I am in favour of a bipartisan approach, it seems in this case not to have reached the right conclusion.
This proposal could harm the aviation industry at a time when it is facing huge problems.
So instead I have decided to reform APD into a four-band system ensuring those that travel further and have a larger environmental impact meet that cost.
I believe this will be effective in reducing emissions from aviation."Details are contained in Chapter 7 of the 2008 Pre-Budget Report and a release from HM Revenue & Customs. The latter details the impact on travel to individual countries.
HM Treasury also released a 37-page response on the consultation it had done on moving from a per passenger to a per plane charge.
UK media coverage included that from:
- the European Low Fares Airline Association (ELFAA)
- the British Air Transport Association (BATA)
The announcement came the day before New Zealand's New Prime Minister, John Key, met with UK Prime Minister, Gordon Brown.
NZ media coverage included that from:
Australian reaction was reported in The Age.
Even before the official announcement, on 13 October 2008 Ryanair was reacting to accurate speculation about the tax and followed up with a further statement on 17 October.
Air New Zealand has issued a series of media releases on the crash as have various official bodies (not all are available on the web yet).
Air New Zealand:
Incident 0829 28/11
Update 1438 28/11
Update 1724 28/11
Update 2146 28/11
Update 0600 29/11
Update 0900 29/11
Update 1328 29/11
Update 2030 29/11
Update 0807 30/11
Update NEW 1028 2/12
Update NEW 1328 2/12
Update NEW 1512 7/12
Update NEW 1528 13/1
Update NEW 1229 15/1
Update NEW 19/1
Update NEW 20/1
Update NEW 1449 20/1
Update NEW 22/1
Update NEW 23/1
Bureau d'Enquetes et d'Analyses (BEA):
Accident on approach to Perpignan 2008 27/11
Accident on approach to Perpignan 2008 NEW 3/12
Civil Aviation Authority of New Zealand:
CAA staff shocked by accident involving missing colleague NEW 28/11
New Zealand Prime Minister:
Statement on Air New Zealand plane crash 28/11
New Zealand Minister of Transport:
Government concerned for Air NZ & CAA staff on crashed Airbus 28/11
There is no point in speculating as to exactly what happened. That usually takes time to establish but I hope that the accident investigators are able to find some answers that we can learn from and that the investigation does not become entangled in judicial proceedings.
At the time of the crash, the aircraft was still on the German registry as D-AXLA, having not yet been handed back to Air New Zealand, but it had already been repainted in Air New Zealand colours. Seeing a photograph of the tail fin with the koru floating in the sea was particularly hard. The accident happened on the 29th anniversary of the Erebus tragedy, a day I still remember well. I was studying at Otago University in Dunedin then.
Rest in peace guys.
23 November 2008
The NZ Herald carried a profile of Joyce on 5 September 2008. He is a zoology and economics major with a business background, most recently as CEO of Jasons Travel Media and General Manager of the National Party.
In a new innovation there is now also a Minister of Infrastructure, Deputy Prime Minister Bill English.
The Bombardier Global Express aircraft touched down in Christchurch, New Zealand early this morning local time for only 31 minutes.
The planned routing is Farnborough-Whitehorse-Majuro-Christchurch-Punta Arenas-Sal-Farnborough. (HT to MRC Aviation which provides very good coverage of non-scheduled international operations through New Zealand.)
21 November 2008
On 21 November 2008 The Australian carried a report by Steve Creedy on the draft determination and BusinessDay reported NEW a response from Air New Zealand.
Air New Zealand makes an interesting point about past ACCC approvals of the arrangements between Qantas and South African Airways on the Australia-South Africa route. It is also notable that by not fully liberalising its air services arrangements with countries such as Singapore and Canada, the Australian Government has blocked entry by potential competitors into the Australia-mainland USA market. It would seem that this has been deliberately done to protect the launch of V Australia into this market. However, a submission from the Australian Department of Infrastructure notes that Australia intends to enter into air services negotiations with Canada "in the near future."
06 November 2008
The permitted number of charter flights will be tripled to 108 per week and will be able to operate every day of the week (an agreement signed earlier this year permitted operations on only four days per week). New direct air routes will be introduced saving fuel and emissions as current flights are required to transit Hong Kong air space. Sixty direct cargo flights per month will also be possible.
Direct shipping links will be opened.
On 5 November 2008 Taiwan News carried a story on the negative impact the move is likely to have on Hong Kong.
05 November 2008
They have also done cartograms of the 2004 election.
The cartograms cover both state and county level results. The area of a state or county is based on its population or number of electoral votes rather than land area.
04 November 2008
It also links to the original US Presidential Quiz from Glassbooth.
My personal results? In New Zealand three parties are very close with a fourth not far behind and I still haven't finally decided which way my two votes will be cast on Saturday. As for US, I am glad I am not voting there because my quiz input on the issues results in an exact tie between McCain and Obama!
Anyway whether you are in the United States or New Zealand this week the most important thing is that if you are eligible you exercise your democratic right to vote. At times we may wish that we had a better system of selecting our governments, but a democratic system can only survive if we all support it.
And have fun watching the results roll in on the night.
31 October 2008
Three key outcomes are stated to have emerged:
- The participants asked IATA to continue to facilitate this discussion with a second meeting in early 2009 to turn the discussion into action.
- They also asked IATA to facilitate the development of a multi-lateral statement of policy that would be a powerful tool expressing the common thinking and approach of the group of states.
- Finally, the group agreed to spread best practices in liberalisation by making more openly available to all states the most liberal agreements that are being negotiated.
The United States Ambassador to the European Union, Kristen Silverberg, has written a letter to the European Commission dated 30 October 2008 reiterating US concerns.
Press releases reacting to the Council decision came from IATA, the Association of European Airlines (AEA) and the ELFAA.
EurActiv.com has a "links dossier" providing access to background on the aviation and emissions trading issue.
Policy.net.nz has a page on party transport policies.
28 October 2008
26 October 2008
The airline is unusual in that it is foreign owned and controlled by Spanish interests, the Marsans group, probably giving many of Argentina's bilateral air services agreement partners the right to refuse to grant it operating authorisation. To my knowledge none have done so.
The non-stop service between Rarotonga and Los Angeles is already subsidised by the Cook Islands government.
It is becoming increasingly clear that the Boeing B787, with its size/range combinations, is likely to play a major part in New Zealand's aviation future.
The September 2008 New Zealand International Visitor Arrivals:
- Australia 82,317 down 2.6%
- UK 10,580 down 5.3%
- USA 9,131 down 11.6%
- Canada 2,139 up 12.0%
- China 5,497 down 33.2%
- Korea 4,577 down 30.7%
- Japan 6,486 down 22.1%
Will the recent dramatic fall in the value of the NZ$ start to have a positive impact in some of these markets?
The NZ Ministry of Tourism does a good monthly analysis of this data in a Commentary and its Tourism Leading Indicators Monitor. I look at the provisional numbers that come through every Friday and at my work we also have the raw data direct from Statistics NZ. The NZ Ministry of Transport is the only one that gets the airline-by-airline statistics as, unlike in Australia for example, here they are regarded as commercially sensitive.
The latest announcement has just been covered in a story dated 24 October 2008 by Denise McNabb from The Independent. Given the dramatic fall in the price of oil, it is quite interesting. There have recently been some painful losses for the latest quarter announced by airlines in the United States as a result of having to mark to market their fuel hedging.
A data series and graphs on the Singapore jet fuel spot price are available from the US Energy Information Administration (see previous post). I have installed a widget giving the price of crude oil in US$ on the left hand side of this weblog.
Back on 29 May 2008 the Canadian Minister of Transport noted that there had by then been three rounds of negotiations. The first round was held in Brussels on 27-28 November 2007 (Canadian statement)(see previous post).
25 October 2008
To mark the occasion on 23 October 2008 the Antitrust Division of the US Department of Justice held a Workshop on Airline Competition at which some of the leading academics in the airline field presented papers (HT to Aviation Law Prof Blog).
Also marking the occasion were three articles complete with commentaries in the Summer 2008 issue of the Houston Law Review and a short article, Why You Hate to Fly, by Evan Sparks in The American magazine.
Bill Swelbar from MIT has four postings on his weblog:
- Economic Impact of Commercial Aviation
- Triangulating Southwest to the Point of Indifference
- Management and Labor
- Stakeholder Winners and Losers NEW
To cap it off Kieran Daly noted that, one of the biggest beneficiaries of deregulation, Southwest had just announced its first quarterly loss in 17 years as a result of having to mark to market its fuel hedging.
I remember in the 1980s reading that the airline industry was proving to be less contestable than the advocates of economic deregulation had thought it would be. The industry certainly has had a bumpy ride from a financial perspective but consumers have enjoyed huge benefits. I continue to have an open mind as to whether the economic policy advisers and regulators, of which I am one here in New Zealand, have it right. The above links point to plenty of food for thought.
The BDI measures the cost of chartering large bulk ships and is regarded as a leading indicator of global economic activity. Back on 24 October 2003 an article by Daniel Gross in Slate described it as the best economic indicator you've never heard of.
With such developments as this and the fall in the price of oil maybe the world is getting smaller again (see previous post).
These days what is left of the UK canal network is maintained by British Waterways. I have been to the National Waterways Museum in Gloucester.
This brings to 94 the number of "open skies" relationships that the United States has reached. Note that ICAO has 190 Contracting States so the US is now just under half way through all the possible "open skies" relationships that it could have.
I recently came across a much more comprehensive data visualisation source, FINVIZ.com (HT to information aesthetics). Currently it presents a gloomy picture but perhaps points to some buying opportunities for those that are contrarian. To quote Warren Buffett in an opinion piece in The Times on 19 October 2008: "Be greedy when other are fearful and be fearful when others are greedy."
The market capitalisations of the major US airlines are now so small that they are actually quite hard to find on this visualisation tool - do not expect to find them in the S&P 500 view - look in the Full view in the Services block on the right near the bottom under "Maj".
12 October 2008
09 October 2008
Given Fiji's central geographic location in the South Pacific and its past concerns about air services liberalisation, this is a significant announcement.
28 September 2008
This seems to provide a partial explanation as to why I, as a New Zealander, feel more at home in Canada than England or even Australia and enjoy visiting Switzerland and Austria.
What would be fascinating to see is such a map done for the values held by people in individual states in the USA, particularly California and New York compared with the Mid West and Deep South.
I have seen a similar map graphing the relationship between trust and economic performance by Harrison and Huntington (2000) in "The Origin of Wealth" by Eric Beinhocker (Figure 18-1 on page 433 - also see previous post).
Also take heed of the usual note of caution - to fully understand the opportunities available to international airlines in an air services relationship you also need to look at the related Memorandum of Understanding. In New Zealand these are held by the Ministry of Transport and are not available on the web.
On my home pages I have a list of virtually all the air services agreements (but not the amendments) with their year of signature and that gives some indication of those treaties that are no longer current. The following treaties are in date order of publication in the Treaty Series.
New Zealand Air Services Treaties Online
Exchange of Notes constituting an Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of the Commonwealth of Australia amending the Agreement relating to Air Services of 25 July 1961  NZTS 19
Exchange of Notes amending the Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of Western Samoa for Air Services between and beyond their Respective Territories of 23 June 1978  NZTS 16
Exchange of Letters constituting an Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of the Republic of Nauru to amend the Route Schedule of the Air Services Agreement of 5 August 1980  NZTS 20
Exchange of Notes constituting an Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland amending the Agreement concerning Air Services  NZTS 1
Exchange of Notes constituting an Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of the Republic of Fiji amending the Agreement between New Zealand and Fiji concerning Air Services of 26 April 1979  NZTS 5
Exchange of Letters amending the Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of Western Samoa for Air Services, as Amended by Exchange of Notes of 2 July 1984, and further amended by Exchange of Notes of 31 August 1990 (with Annex)  NZTS 16
Exchange of Notes constituting an Agreement amending the 1978 Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of Western Samoa for Air Services between and beyond their Respective Territories (with Annex)  NZTS 7
Civil Aviation-Related Treaties Online
Australian - New Zealand Agreement 1944  NZTS 1 – note paragraphs 17 to 23.
Exchange of Letters between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of Fiji constituting an Agreement concerning the Contribution by the Government of New Zealand toward the Improvement in the Financial Situation and in the Reorganisation of Air Pacific Ltd  NZTS 11
23 September 2008
The same consultants, International Finance Corporation (a member of the World Bank Group), advised the Government of Samoa on the future of Polynesian Airlines which lead to its downsizing and the creation of Polynesian Blue in 2005.
21 September 2008
The focus is on the international transport challenges facing the Pacific Islands with their small markets and vast distances. The aviation volume was drafted by the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation and the shipping volume was drafted by Meyrick and Associates.
- AIRLINE INDUSTRY - Potential Mergers and Acquisitions Driven by Financial and Competitive Pressures from July 2008 (.pdf, 51 pages)
- AVIATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT - NextGen and Research and Development Are Keys to Reducing Emissions and Their Impact on Health and Climate from May 2008 (.pdf, 37 pages)
A couple of years ago the GAO commented on the idea of reregulating the US airline industry:
- AIRLINE DEREGULATION - Reregulating the Airline Industry Would Likely Reverse Consumer Benefits and Not Save Airline Pensions from June 2006 (.pdf, 44 pages)
20 September 2008
19 September 2008
18 September 2008
On 1 August 2008 the Office of the Attorney General announced that around 30 public submissions had been received.
What the task force is interested in was outlined in a call for submissions issued by the Fiji Government (see previous post).
17 September 2008
The Plan gives some quantification of potential emissions reductions but could have been clearer in summarising the total reductions thought to be achievable.
Back on 24 February 2006 USA Today reported on a previous related dispute.
16 September 2008
I used monthly jet fuel spot prices from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (see previous post). The exchange rate data set I used came from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
The NZ Herald reported on 15 September 2008 that the flight achieved a 4% reduction in fuel consumption.
The flight was part of the Asia & South Pacific Initiative to Reduce Emissions (ASPIRE) that also involves Air Services Australia.
14 September 2008
Those Kiwis overseas might like to have a look at the web site Every Vote Counts, a non-partisan campaign to reach New Zealanders offshore and encourage them to participate.
Canada's next federal election will be on 14 October and the Presidential election in the United States is on 4 November so there is plenty going on to keep election watchers interested.
11 September 2008
It is not just that New Zealand beat Australia, with 116 countries listed it is that New Zealand just beat Australia that I find so interesting.
Herman from Belgium (producer of a brilliant set of small flags that I use) also has a table setting out the recent results (for 2008 he combines Beijing and Torino).
31 August 2008
At least one blog had been supporting her for months.
The aviation angles? Her husband Todd has a private pilot licence, owns a Super Cub manufactured in 1958 and registered N8149D, and they have a daughter called Piper. As was the case with Democratic vice presidential candidate Senator Joseph Biden, the first clue as to who McCain might have picked came from those who follow business jet movements. John McCain, of course, was a US Navy pilot.
I have greater faith in technological solutions to civil aviation's current fossil-fuel challenge but it is clear that the aerospace and airline industries must adapt and do so quickly.
17 August 2008
16 August 2008
14 August 2008
It is interesting to compare these with the latest New Zealand forecasts (see previous post). The Australian forecasts are predicting 0.0% inbound growth in 2008 before rising 3.3% in 2009. Outbound growth from Australia is expected to be strong - 9.9% in 2008 and 8.0% in 2009.
Tourism Australia also publishes good information on Australia's aviation markets, including market share and historical seat capacity data.
10 August 2008
Airline seat capacity reducing from East Asia to New Zealand but trans-Tasman competition increasing
On 26 July 2008 the Star reported that Malaysia Airlines plans to use smaller aircraft on its services to Australia and New Zealand. It is temporarily reducing capacity to Auckland by one flight per week for a month.
On 7 August 2008 the China Post reported that EVA Airways would be suspending its operations to Auckland from 1 September 2008 and Tourism New Zealand would be closing its Taipei office.
By way of background, in 2006 Garuda ceased services from Denpasar to Auckland, and Air New Zealand ceased operations to Singapore when it extended its Hong Kong services to London and commenced services to Shanghai.
On a more positive note for seat capacity to New Zealand, on 18 July 2008 Air New Zealand commenced non-stop operations to Beijing, and Pacific Blue has announced that it will be commencing trans-Tasman services on both the Melbourne-Auckland (from 22 September 2008) and Sydney-Auckland (from 14 October 2008) routes. Emirates is reported in the NZ Herald on 8 August 2008 to be planning to introduce the A380 on services to Auckland from 1 February 2009 and increase the size of aircraft it operates to Christchurch. Royal Brunei has started operating daily to Auckland via Brisbane.
It would be hard to find many examples around the world where so many airlines are competing as on the main trans-Tasman routes.
I was intrigued to find that the key ideas in the book are neatly summarised in a presentation UPDATED (.pdf) given by the author in April 2007 that is on the UK Cabinet Office web site.
As a historian this bugs me and I was intrigued to find that someone has put an article on Wikipedia with the facts, listing the airline's fatal accidents.
An Australian Transport Safety Bureau media release dated 30 July 2008 provides an update on the B747 depressurisation incident.
QANTAS has yet to lose a jet aircraft hull and I hope it never does.
Although there have been developments since it was presented (see previous post), the paper provides good background on the issues involved and touches on the legal differences between the EU and others who question the legality of what the EU is planning to do.
To see the animation click on Gadget1 - see top left - and then press the play button. Roll your mouse pointer over individual bubbles to see the market names. Click on them to produce a label. With the trace box (right centre) selected, click on a bubble and press play (bottom left) for a year-by-year view of changes (click on the bubble again to deselect). Multiple bubbles can be selected.
I used data on great circle distances from Auckland airport (AKL)(from Great Circle Mapper) for the X axis, real GDP per capita on a PPP basis (from Gapminder) for the Y axis and New Zealand resident departure numbers (from Statistics NZ Table 3.01) for the bubbles. Note that the market concerned is where New Zealand residents have declared that they will be spending the most time on their trip - their country of main destination. (See previous post.)
08 August 2008
Now for some links:
- The official web site of the Beijing 2008 Games
- Television New Zealand's Olympics pages
- NZ Herald's Olympics pages
- stuff.co.nz Olympics pages
- NBC Olympics
- Yahoo!7 Olympics pages from Australia
- BBC Sport's Olympics pages
- International Olympic Committee
As for the aviation connection, on 18 July 2008 Air New Zealand started operating non-stop services from Auckland to Beijing.