08 August 2008

Official New Zealand tourism forecasts

On 31 July 2008 New Zealand's official tourism forecasts for 2008-2014 were released. The forecasts are produced by an Auckland-based economics consultancy Covec. (See previous post.)

For 2008 international visitor arrivals to New Zealand are forecast to grow by just 1.2% while growth in outbound overseas travel by New Zealand residents is expected to be even weaker at only 0.6%. The former is expected to rebound to 2.4% in 2009 while the latter is expected to fall further to 0.1%.

These forecasts have a good track record of accuracy. With the gyrations in the price of oil that record will really be put to the test this year.

The econometrics techniques that go into the forecasts are very through. I am part of the Delphi panel each year. My contribution is less theoretically based!

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