Aeropolitical 'hard ball' directed at Canada by the UAE

Reports in the Globe and Mail (8 October 2010), the Vancouver Sun (9 October 2010) and on Bloomberg (10 October 2010) point to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) venting its frustration at Canada's refusal to grant increased access to Emirates and Etihad (see previous post). This has taken the form of kicking the Canadian military out of the UAE which the Canadians have been using for logistics support for operations in Afghanistan.

I am left wondering whether there is a real risk of Canada giving notice of termination of its air services arrangements with the UAE. Such action would potentially include removing the right for UAE's airlines to overfly Canadian territory on non-stop services between Dubai and San Francisco/Los Angeles, for example, because Canada is no longer a party to the International Air Services Transit Agreement - Canada withdrew in 1988. (New Zealand has only ever terminated an air services relationship once, with Canada in the 1960s.)

Given that the origin of the military operations in Afghanistan was the horrendous 9/11 attacks in the USA using civil aviation, the actions of the UAE are not a good look.