Fiji to join the PIASA

On 7 October 2008 the Fiji Interim Government announced that Fiji intends to join the Pacific Islands Air Services Agreement (PIASA)(see previous post).

Given Fiji's central geographic location in the South Pacific and its past concerns about air services liberalisation, this is a significant announcement.

Canada reaches "Blue Sky" agreement with Dominican Republic

Canadian Ministers Cannon and Fortier announced on 5 September 2008 that Canada has reached a "Blue Sky" air transport agreement with the Dominican Republic.

India to sign new air services agreement with the Maldives

On 18 September 2008 the Indian Government announced that it had approved the signing of a new air services agreement (ASA) with the Maldives. The draft ASA includes a move to multiple designation and permits third-country code-sharing but retains the traditional "substantial ownership and effective control" provision.

Airline perspectives on Philippines air transport policy

On 28 September 2008 the Manila Times carried a special report quoting the views of Philippine Airlines and Cebu Pacific about international air services policy and negotiations.

The two Congos sign a new air services agreement

Afrique en ligne carries a report dated 25 September 2008 on the signing of a new air services agreement between DR Congo and Congo-Brazzaville.

Common Values - Why Kiwis and Canucks get along so well?

The World Values Survey web site has an interesting Cultural Map of the World (see below) by Political Studies Professors Ronald Inglehart and Christian Welzel that organises countries by the values their people hold.


This seems to provide a partial explanation as to why I, as a New Zealander, feel more at home in Canada than England or even Australia and enjoy visiting Switzerland and Austria.

What would be fascinating to see is such a map done for the values held by people in individual states in the USA, particularly California and New York compared with the Mid West and Deep South.

I have seen a similar map graphing the relationship between trust and economic performance by Harrison and Huntington (2000) in "The Origin of Wealth" by Eric Beinhocker (Figure 18-1 on page 433 - also see previous post).

Most of New Zealand's air services agreements are now online

I have been through the New Zealand Treaty Series documents currently available at http://www.nzlii.org/nz/other/mfat/NZTS/ and extracted out the links to those on air services (see recent post) and civil aviation. Clearly what has been posted is a work in progress with a significant number of air services-related treaties still to be added (notably those covering New Zealand's air services relationships with European countries, the most recent ones and the MALIAT, which has its own web site) and there is no indication of the current status of individual treaties - many have been superseded.

Also take heed of the usual note of caution - to fully understand the opportunities available to international airlines in an air services relationship you also need to look at the related Memorandum of Understanding. In New Zealand these are held by the Ministry of Transport and are not available on the web.

On my home pages I have a list of virtually all the air services agreements (but not the amendments) with their year of signature and that gives some indication of those treaties that are no longer current. The following treaties are in date order of publication in the Treaty Series.

New Zealand Air Services Treaties Online

Exchange of Notes between New Zealand and France constituting an Agreement regarding the Exchange of Air Traffic Rights in the South Pacific [1949] NZTS 9

Air Transport Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of the French Republic [1968] NZTS 3

Exchange of Letters between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of France extending the Air Transport Agreement of 9 November 1967 [1971] NZTS 17

Agreement between New Zealand and Japan for Air Services, with Exchange of Notes [1980] NZTS 7

Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of the Republic of Nauru concerning Air Services, with Route Schedule [1980] NZTS 10

Exchange of Notes constituting an Agreement to amend the 1961 Air Services Agreement between New Zealand and Australia [1982] NZTS 7

Exchange of Notes constituting an Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of the Commonwealth of Australia amending the Agreement relating to Air Services of 25 July 1961 [1983] NZTS 19

Exchange of Notes amending the Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of Western Samoa for Air Services between and beyond their Respective Territories of 23 June 1978 [1984] NZTS 16

Exchange of Letters between the Government of the Republic of Nauru and the Government of New Zealand constituting an Agreement to Amend the Air Services Agreement 1980 [1984] NZTS 17

Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of Canada on Air Transport, with Annex and Exchange of Notes [1985] NZTS 4

Agreement between New Zealand and the Argentine Republic for Air Services [1985] NZTS 5

Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of the Cook Islands concerning Air Services [1986] NZTS 9

Exchange of Letters constituting an Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of the Republic of Nauru to amend the Route Schedule of the Air Services Agreement of 5 August 1980 [1987] NZTS 20

Air Services Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of the Kingdom of Thailand, with Annex [1987] NZTS 23

Air Transport Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of the Republic of Indonesia, with Annex [1988] NZTS 4

Exchange of Letters constituting an Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of the Cook Islands amending the Agreement concerning Air Services [1988] NZTS 8

Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of the Republic of Vanuatu concerning Air Services (with Annex) [1989] NZTS 4

Exchange of Notes constituting an Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of Japan amending the Agreement for Air Services [1989] NZTS 5

Exchange of Notes constituting an Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of the Kingdom of Thailand Amending the Air Services Agreement [1989] NZTS 6

Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of Solomon Islands concerning Air Services (with Annex) [1990] NZTS 2

Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of Niue concerning Air Services [1990] NZTS 3

Exchange of Notes constituting an Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland amending the Agreement concerning Air Services [1991] NZTS 1

Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of Hong Kong concerning Air Services [1991] NZTS 7

Exchange of Notes constituting an Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of the Republic of Fiji amending the Agreement between New Zealand and Fiji concerning Air Services of 26 April 1979 [1992] NZTS 5

Exchange of Notes constituting an Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of Thailand to Amend the Air Services Agreement, as amended in 1989 [1992] NZTS 16

Air Transport Agreement between the Government of the Russian Federation and the Government of New Zealand [1993] NZTS 2

Exchange of Letters constituting an Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of Japan concerning Amendments to the 1980 Air Services Agreement [1993] NZTS 8

Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of the Republic of Korea for Air Services between and beyond their Respective Territories (with annex) [1993] NZTS 11

Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of the People's Republic of China relating to Civil Air Transport [1993] NZTS 14

Exchange of Letters amending the Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of Western Samoa for Air Services, as Amended by Exchange of Notes of 2 July 1984, and further amended by Exchange of Notes of 31 August 1990 (with Annex) [1993] NZTS 16

Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of Papua New Guinea on Air Services [1994] NZTS 2

Exchange of Notes constituting an Agreement amending the 1978 Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of Western Samoa for Air Services between and beyond their Respective Territories (with Annex) [1994] NZTS 7

Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of the Sovereign Democratic Republic of Fiji on Air Services [1994] NZTS 27

Air Transport Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of the Republic of Chile [1995] NZTS 15

Exchange of Letters between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of Japan amending the Agreement for Air Services of 1980 [1995] NZTS 20

Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of Macau on Air Services [1996] NZTS 8

Exchange of Notes between the Government of Hong Kong and the Government of New Zealand amending the Air Services Agreement of 22 February 1991 [1996] NZTS 20

Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of the Republic of India relating to Air Services [1997] NZTS 10

Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of the Republic of South Africa on Air Services (with route schedule) [1997] NZTS 13

Air Services Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of the Republic of Singapore [1997] NZTS 14

Air Transport Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of the United States of America [1997] NZTS 19

Exchange of Letters Constituting an Amendment to the Agreement between New Zealand and Japan for Air Services signed at Auckland on 18 January 1980 [1998] NZTS 6

Exchange of Letters amending the Route Schedule of the Air Services Agreement between the Republic of Argentina and New Zealand done 13 December 1985 [1998] NZTS 8

Air Services Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of Malaysia [1998] NZTS 9

Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of the Federative Republic of Brazil on Air Services, with Annex [1998] NZTS 16

Air Services Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of His Majesty the Sultan and Yang-Di-Peertuan of Brunei Darussalam [1999] NZTS 5

Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of the United Arab Emirates on Air Services [1999] NZTS 22

Air Services Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of the Cook Islands [2000] NZTS 1

Exchange of Notes between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of the Republic of Indonesia constituting an Agreement amending the Air Transport Agreement of 27 May 1988 [2000] NZTS 12

Air Services Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of Ireland [2000] NZTS 14

Air Services Agreement between the Government of the United Mexican States and the Government of New Zealand [2000] NZTS 22

Air Services Agreement between New Zealand and the Kingdom of Denmark [2001] NZTS 2

Air Services Agreement between New Zealand and the Kingdom of Norway [2001] NZTS 3

Air Services Agreement between New Zealand and the Kingdom of Sweden [2001] NZTS 4

Air Services Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of the Kingdom of Tonga [2002] NZTS 1

Air Transport Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Austrian Federal Government [2002] NZTS 6

Exchange of Notes to Amend the Agreement Between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of Japan Relating to Air Services [2002] NZTS 56

Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of Australia Relating to Air Services [2003] NZTS 13

Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of the Socialist Republic of Viet Nam on Air Services [2004] NZTS 7

Civil Aviation-Related Treaties Online

Australian - New Zealand Agreement 1944 [1944] NZTS 1 – note paragraphs 17 to 23.

Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of Western Samoa concerning Civil Aviation, with Annex [1973] NZTS 3

Exchange of Letters between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of Fiji constituting an Agreement concerning the Contribution by the Government of New Zealand toward the Improvement in the Financial Situation and in the Reorganisation of Air Pacific Ltd [1975] NZTS 11

Exchange of Notes amending the Agreement of 20 March 1970 relating to Certificates of Air Worthiness for Imported Aircraft [1979] NZTS 10

Agreement on Civil Aviation between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of the Cook Islands [1986] NZTS 6

Exchange of Letters constituting an Agreement between the Government of New Zealand and the Government of Niue relating to Civil Aviation [1986] NZTS 10

Air Vanuatu restructuring?

The Government of Vanuatu still has a web site up for the proposed restructuring of Air Vanuatu. Expressions of Interest were due by 7 March 2008. I have not seen any progress reports.

The same consultants, International Finance Corporation (a member of the World Bank Group), advised the Government of Samoa on the future of Polynesian Airlines which lead to its downsizing and the creation of Polynesian Blue in 2005.

Japan negotiates new air services arrangements with Singapore

The Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore (CAAS) announced on 19 September 2008 that Japan and Singapore have reached agreement on expanded air services arrangements. This included an expanded exchange of fifth freedom rights and a major capacity increase for Singaporean airlines into Tokyo that will also allow services into Haneda airport. The negotiations took place in Singapore on 17-18 September.

Australia and Bangladesh negotiate new air services arrangements

On 27 August 2008 the Australian Minister for Infrastructure, Hon Anthony Albanese, announced that Australia has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Bangladesh that will provided for air services between the two countries by their airlines.

Oceanic Voyages report from the ADB

Last year the Asian Development Bank (ADB) based in Manila published a three-volume report, Oceanic Voyages: Aviation and Shipping in the Pacific Region. The report is full of case studies and is now available online.

The focus is on the international transport challenges facing the Pacific Islands with their small markets and vast distances. The aviation volume was drafted by the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation and the shipping volume was drafted by Meyrick and Associates.

Aviation reports from the US Government Accountability Office

Amongst the many recent reports and testimony produced by the United States Government Accountability Office (US GAO - described as the investigative arm of Congress) there are a couple that I found to be of particular interest:

• AIRLINE INDUSTRY - Potential Mergers and Acquisitions Driven by Financial and Competitive Pressures from July 2008 (.pdf, 51 pages)

The focus is on the US domestic air transport market but the report is of wider relevance.

• AVIATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT - NextGen and Research and Development Are Keys to Reducing Emissions and Their Impact on Health and Climate from May 2008 (.pdf, 37 pages)

The GAO notes that its is "... currently undertaking ... a study of the EU emissions trading system and its potential impact on U.S. airlines, and other issues relating to aviation and climate change."

A couple of years ago the GAO commented on the idea of reregulating the US airline industry:

• AIRLINE DEREGULATION - Reregulating the Airline Industry Would Likely Reverse Consumer Benefits and Not Save Airline Pensions from June 2006 (.pdf, 44 pages)
  

Reasons why The End of Aviation is not nigh

In response to the article that appeared in New Republic, on 1 September 2008 Kieran Daly posted on his Unusual Attitude weblog five reasons why not (see previous post).

New Zealand National Freight Demands Study released

On 18 September 2008 a National Freight Demands Study was released. The study gives a comprehensive picture of the movement of goods around New Zealand and should provide a sounder basis for transport policy and planning.

Air Pacific review hearings

In stories on 2 September and 5 September 2008 the Fiji Times reported that task force hearings on Air Pacific are under way.

On 1 August 2008 the Office of the Attorney General announced that around 30 public submissions had been received.

What the task force is interested in was outlined in a call for submissions issued by the Fiji Government (see previous post).

APEC Port Services Network

The APEC Port Services Network now has its own web site that carries industry news.

Plan for air traffic management progress in Europe

A new Flight Efficiency Plan (.pdf) released on 9 September 2008 by IATA, Eurocontrol and CANSO is aimed at reducing aviation fuel consumption within Europe.

The Plan gives some quantification of potential emissions reductions but could have been clearer in summarising the total reductions thought to be achievable.

Canada's treaties

There is now a new web site for Canada's treaties, including its air transport agreements - search under the subject "Air" (see previous post). It is maintained by the Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade.

Venezuela-United States air services dispute

On 12 September 2008 Aviation Week carried a story about a developing dispute between Venezuela and the United States. An issue is the interpretation of the 1953 bilateral Air Transport Agreement between the two countries.

Back on 24 February 2006 USA Today reported on a previous related dispute.

The price of jet fuel

With the price of oil back below US$100 per barrel, today I completed the following graph. I was particularly interested to see what the picture was with respect to monthly movements in the price of jet fuel measured in New Zealand dollars.

I used monthly jet fuel spot prices from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (see previous post). The exchange rate data set I used came from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

ASPIRE and the "perfect" flight

Air New Zealand has cooperated with Airways New Zealand and the US Federal Aviation Administration to carry out a B777-200ER flight to San Francisco (SFO) that departed on 12 September 2008 from Auckland (AKL) to demonstrate what is now possible using advanced air traffic management technology and procedures to achieve a reduction in fuel consumption and aircraft emissions.

The NZ Herald reported on 15 September 2008 that the flight achieved a 4% reduction in fuel consumption.

The flight was part of the Asia & South Pacific Initiative to Reduce Emissions (ASPIRE) that also involves Air Services Australia.

New Zealand 2008 General Election date announced

On Friday, 12 September 2008 the Prime Minister announced that the next New Zealand General Election will be held on Saturday, 8 November 2008 so it is time for New Zealanders to check that they are enrolled with Elections New Zealand.

Those Kiwis overseas might like to have a look at the web site Every Vote Counts, a non-partisan campaign to reach New Zealanders offshore and encourage them to participate.

Canada's next federal election will be on 14 October and the Presidential election in the United States is on 4 November so there is plenty going on to keep election watchers interested.

New Zealand beats Australia in the Olympics medal tally

The per capita statistics from NationMaster has New Zealand at #11 just ahead of Australia at #12 on the all-time Summer Olympics medal tally (see previous post).

It is not just that New Zealand beat Australia, with 116 countries listed it is that New Zealand just beat Australia that I find so interesting.

Herman from Belgium (producer of a brilliant set of small flags that I use) also has a table setting out the recent results (for 2008 he combines Beijing and Torino).

Remembering John Lozowsky on 9/11

Another 9/11 anniversary comes around here in Wellington and I am taking a moment to remember John Lozowsky, one of the two New Zealand citizens killed that terrible day in 2001 (see my first post).

John McCain chooses Alaska Governor Sarah Palin

A few weeks ago I mentioned to a friend who follows US politics that he should read up about Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as a likely vice presidential running mate for the 2008 Republican presidential candidate, Senator John McCain. I wasn't caught by surprise when she was selected late last week. This lady has a fascinating personal story that is now getting extensive media coverage.

At least one blog had been supporting her for months.

The aviation angles? Her husband Todd has a private pilot licence, owns a Super Cub manufactured in 1958 and registered N8149D, and they have a daughter called Piper. As was the case with Democratic vice presidential candidate Senator Joseph Biden, the first clue as to who McCain might have picked came from those who follow business jet movements. John McCain, of course, was a US Navy pilot.

The United Arab Emirates concludes new air services arrangements with Jordan and Nigeria

The United Arab Emirates has concluded new air services arrangements with Jordan (announced on 3 July 2008) and Nigeria (announced on 30 July 2008)(see previous post).

The End of Aviation?

The New Republic has a thought-provoking article, "The End Of Aviation", dated 27 August 2008 by Bradford Plumer.

I have greater faith in technological solutions to civil aviation's current fossil-fuel challenge but it is clear that the aerospace and airline industries must adapt and do so quickly.

Iran and the Philippines conclude first air services agreement

On 7 August 2008 Fars News Agency reported that Iran and the Philippines have concluded their first air services agreement. This was also reported in Manila Times story on the same day.

New Zealand Minister of Tourism comments on Thai Airways' Auckland service

On 13 August 2008 the Bangkok Post reported comments by the New Zealand Minister of Tourism, Hon Damien O'Connor, on the possibility that Thai Airways International may reroute its current non-stop Bangkok-Auckland flights via Australia (see previous post).

Official Australian tourism forecasts

Australia's official tourism forecasts are published twice yearly, the latest being produced in August 2008.

It is interesting to compare these with the latest New Zealand forecasts (see previous post). The Australian forecasts are predicting 0.0% inbound growth in 2008 before rising 3.3% in 2009. Outbound growth from Australia is expected to be strong - 9.9% in 2008 and 8.0% in 2009.

Tourism Australia also publishes good information on Australia's aviation markets, including market share and historical seat capacity data.

Airline seat capacity reducing from East Asia to New Zealand but trans-Tasman competition increasing

Thai Airways was reported in the Wall Street Journal to be considering routing its non-stop Bangkok-Auckland operations via Australia.

On 26 July 2008 the Star reported that Malaysia Airlines plans to use smaller aircraft on its services to Australia and New Zealand. It is temporarily reducing capacity to Auckland by one flight per week for a month.

On 7 August 2008 the China Post reported that EVA Airways would be suspending its operations to Auckland from 1 September 2008 and Tourism New Zealand would be closing its Taipei office.

By way of background, in 2006 Garuda ceased services from Denpasar to Auckland, and Air New Zealand ceased operations to Singapore when it extended its Hong Kong services to London and commenced services to Shanghai.

On a more positive note for seat capacity to New Zealand, on 18 July 2008 Air New Zealand commenced non-stop operations to Beijing, and Pacific Blue has announced that it will be commencing trans-Tasman services on both the Melbourne-Auckland (from 22 September 2008) and Sydney-Auckland (from 14 October 2008) routes. Emirates is reported in the NZ Herald on 8 August 2008 to be planning to introduce the A380 on services to Auckland from 1 February 2009 and increase the size of aircraft it operates to Christchurch. Royal Brunei has started operating daily to Auckland via Brisbane.

It would be hard to find many examples around the world where so many airlines are competing as on the main trans-Tasman routes.

Eric Beinhocker on complexity economics

I have recently finished the book The Origin of Wealth - Evolution, Complexity and the Radical Remaking of Economics by Eric D. Beinhocker from McKinsey & Company. For those interested in some provocative, non-conventional - some might say leading edge - thinking about economics, it is well worth a read.

I was intrigued to find that the key ideas in the book are neatly summarised in a presentation UPDATED (.pdf) given by the author in April 2007 that is on the UK Cabinet Office web site.

New air services arrangements signed by Kenya and Congo

On 1 August 2008 it was reported from Brazzaville that Congo and Kenya had signed a new air services agreement.

The great QANTAS safety record myth

Three recent QANTAS aviation safety "incidents", including a very serious one near Manila on 25 July 2008 when a large part from the fuselage of a B747-400 was lost but fortunately no one was injured, have yet again seen misreporting in the non-aviation news media about the safety record of the airline. For example, Bloomberg fell for this myth in a 25 July 2008 story - "Qantas, which has never had a fatal plane accident in its 87-year history, ..."

As a historian this bugs me and I was intrigued to find that someone has put an article on Wikipedia with the facts, listing the airline's fatal accidents.

An Australian Transport Safety Bureau media release dated 30 July 2008 provides an update on the B747 depressurisation incident.

QANTAS has yet to lose a jet aircraft hull and I hope it never does.

A US legal perspective on the EU plan to include international aviation in its ETS

On 7 February 2008 New York-based attorney Stephen Stegich presented a 21-page paper on the European Union emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) and aviation.

Although there have been developments since it was presented (see previous post), the paper provides good background on the issues involved and touches on the legal differences between the EU and others who question the legality of what the EU is planning to do.

Trial New Zealand resident departures chart

I have now completed a second Google Motion Chart. It is on New Zealand Resident Departures for the current top 30 markets and covers the period 1983-2004.

To see the animation click on Gadget1 - see top left - and then press the play button. Roll your mouse pointer over individual bubbles to see the market names. Click on them to produce a label. With the trace box (right centre) selected, click on a bubble and press play (bottom left) for a year-by-year view of changes (click on the bubble again to deselect). Multiple bubbles can be selected.

I used data on great circle distances from Auckland airport (AKL)(from Great Circle Mapper) for the X axis, real GDP per capita on a PPP basis (from Gapminder) for the Y axis and New Zealand resident departure numbers (from Statistics NZ Table 3.01) for the bubbles. Note that the market concerned is where New Zealand residents have declared that they will be spending the most time on their trip - their country of main destination. (See previous post.)

Beijing Olympics 2008

The 2008 Summer Olympic in China are underway so it is time to have a few links to follow the sporting action. But first some great Olympics-related interactive graphics are available from the New York Times, such as a bubble chart on the medals awarded at every modern summer Olympics (click on the bubbles).

Now for some links:

• The official web site of the Beijing 2008 Games
• Television New Zealand's Olympics pages
• NZ Herald's Olympics pages
• stuff.co.nz Olympics pages
  
• NBC Olympics
• Yahoo!7 Olympics pages from Australia
  
• BBC Sport's Olympics pages
• International Olympic Committee
  

With more and more people turning to the web for their news and entertainment I am expecting great things from creative web designers.

As for the aviation connection, on 18 July 2008 Air New Zealand started operating non-stop services from Auckland to Beijing.

New Zealand air services agreements available on the web

The New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade has arranged for the New Zealand Treaty Series to be available on the web from NZLII.

This includes most of New Zealand's air services agreements (ASAs).

I will endeavour to compile a list of links to the ASAs and an unofficial annotation of their status.

A couple of important notes of caution though.

First, the texts are not consolidated so there may be subsequent amendments.

Second, to fully understand an air services arrangement one must almost always also read the related Memorandum of Understanding and these are generally not available on the web. They may contain quantitative restrictions on what international airlines can do and are sometimes confidential. In the case of New Zealand these less-than-treaty-status documents are held by the Ministry of Transport.

New Zealand Transport Strategy 2008 released

On 5 August 2008 the New Zealand Minister of Transport, Hon. Annette King, released the New Zealand Transport Strategy 2008 UPDATED (NZTS). It is well worth a read.

References directly relevant to international air services negotiations can be found on pages 9, 41, 55 and 75.

Also released at the same time is a related new Transport Monitoring Indicator Framework. This is very much a work in progress. When compared to Australian official transport statistics New Zealand's have been much less comprehensive. This new development should help improve the situation while being more focused on the long-term targets that the New Zealand government wishes to achieve.

Official New Zealand tourism forecasts

On 31 July 2008 New Zealand's official tourism forecasts for 2008-2014 were released. The forecasts are produced by an Auckland-based economics consultancy Covec. (See previous post.)

For 2008 international visitor arrivals to New Zealand are forecast to grow by just 1.2% while growth in outbound overseas travel by New Zealand residents is expected to be even weaker at only 0.6%. The former is expected to rebound to 2.4% in 2009 while the latter is expected to fall further to 0.1%.

These forecasts have a good track record of accuracy. With the gyrations in the price of oil that record will really be put to the test this year.

The econometrics techniques that go into the forecasts are very through. I am part of the Delphi panel each year. My contribution is less theoretically based!