Countdown to startup of the Large Hadron Collider at CERN

The Large Hadron Collider (LHC), a 27 kilometer-long particle accelerator straddling the border of Switzerland and France just outside Geneva, is nearly set to begin its first particle beam tests. The European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN) is preparing for its first small tests in early August, leading to a planned full-track test in September, and the first planned particle collisions before the end of the year. The final step before starting is the chilling of the entire collider to -271.25 C.

On 30 June 2008 The Guardian published a number of articles about the LHC and what it is hoped to discover. (See previous post.)

On 2 July 2008 Scientific American carried an article about what five physics Nobel prize winners thought about the LHC.

On 31 July 2008 The Economist ran an article, noting the LHC's US$10 billion cost.

On 1 August 2008 The Boston Globe had a story with a magnificent set of 27 photographs from CERN of the equipment that makes up the LHC.

By way of comparison, the London Underground's Circle line is 22.5 kilometers long.

Aviation emissions data from ICAO

ICAO's Group on International Aviation and Climate Change (GIACC) held its second meeting on 14-16 July 2008 (the first meeting was held on 25-27 February 2008).

The ICAO Secretariat prepared an interesting 11-page information paper on aviation data for the meeting and made an associated presentation.

Adding 9% to aviation GHG emissions for flight delays and indirect routings?

An issue of some significance when considering aviation’s global contribution to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is to what extent there is scope to reduce this through better air traffic management, shorter air routes, airport design, etc. Considerable progress has been made in this area in recent years, particularly in Australasia.

A number of the carbon calculators in use a few month ago when I looked worked on the basis of adding 9% to the great circle distance between two airports to allow for non-direct routes and delays/circling. The one from Back Aviation Solutions, which uses the OAG data base of global airline schedules, was among those that used this approach.

The UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) is commonly cited as providing official backing for using 9% (see page 34, paragraph 4 of the DEFRA methodology paper [the link is now to an UPDATED paper]).

In the absence of anything better, the New Zealand Ministry for the Environment has used this +9% factor in an official New Zealand Government calculator (see http://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/climate/guidance-greenhouse-gas-reporting-apr08/html/page3.html Section 3.3.4).

Intuitively this 9% number seemed too high, at least in the New Zealand context. For example, Airways New Zealand has been making progress in reducing domestic delay, and the introduction of flexi-tracking by both Australia and New Zealand has had a significant impact on reducing fuel consumption by allowing long-haul flights in our region to take advantage of favourable jet stream winds. Of course, accurate fuel consumption should be calculated on a time rather than a distance basis.

I have followed the references through to find the origin of the +9% factor.

DEFRA cites IPCC (1999) Aviation and the Global Atmosphere, J. E. Penner, D. H. Lister, D. J. Griggs, D. J. Dokken and M. McFarland (Eds). Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (see section 8.2.2.3 at http://www.grida.no/Climate/ipcc/aviation/121.htm#8223 ). This makes it clear that the +9% only relates to aircraft operations within Europe and is based on an old 1992 report from Eurocontrol “Penalties to Air Traffic Associated with the ATS Route Network in the Continental ECAC States Area” Document no. 921016.

As I understand it, in 1992 Europe was just beginning to emerge out of the cold war and major blocks of air space were reserved for military use. One would have expected more up-to-date data to be available and sure enough Eurocontrol does seem to collect and publish it. Eurocontrol has a Performance Review Commission that produces an Annual Report, the most recent being for 2006. This includes reporting on “flight efficiency” which, for example, points to the additional distance for long-haul flights to and from Europe being significantly less than for intra-European flights (see http://www.eurocontrol.int/prc/gallery/content/public/Docs/PRR_2006.pdf and in particular Figure 62 on page 52).

Given the importance to New Zealand (and indeed the rest of the SW Pacific) of long-haul flights, this issue is of significant interest.

One wonders why this more recent information was not being used in carbon calculators and why a figure based on European experience is being applied globally. Work clearly needs to done to provide a more accurate figure for such calculations.

Intuitively I would have expected that the factor for flights across the Pacific and Indian Oceans to be much lower (possibly even negative?).

On 1 April 2008 Flight International reported that ICAO has been looking at standards for carbon calculators (see previous post). The answer that ICAO came up with is to take the great circle distance then add 50km for flights of less than 550km, add 100km for flights between 550km and 5500km, and add 125km for flights above 5500km.

Data visualisation research paper

I have found a July 2007 research paper on Data Visualisation from the Australian Bureau of Statistics particularly interesting. The key part of the paper is in the section on “Applications of Data Visualisation” (click fourth from bottom on the left-hand list).

It analyses existing data visualisation tools and techniques, covering dashboards, sparklines, search clouds, mindmap searching and treemaps, as well as Gapminder and Nationmaster. Also covered are stories created through user input and improving static two-dimensional graphs.

Trial New Zealand visitor arrivals motion chart

I have just completed my first Google Motion Chart. It is on New Zealand Visitor Arrivals for the current top 50 markets and covers the period 1983-2004.

To see the animation click on Gadget1 - see top left - and then press the play button. As with Gapminder World animations, roll your mouse pointer over individual bubbles to see the market names. Click on them to produce a label. With the trace box (right centre) selected, click on a bubble and press play (bottom left) for a year-by-year view of changes (click on the bubble again to deselect). Multiple bubbles can be selected.

I used data on great circle distances from Auckland airport (AKL)(from Great Circle Mapper) for the X axis, real GDP per capita on a PPP basis (from Gapminder) for the Y axis and New Zealand visitor arrival numbers (from Statistics NZ Table 2.01) for the bubbles.

Thailand and Australia expand air services opportunities

On 23 July 2008 the Australian Minister for Transport announced in a media release that Australia had reached a new air services understanding with Thailand. There will be a phased increased in capacity except for all-cargo operations where limits are removed.

With respect to fifth freedom operations, Thai airlines are not granted rights beyond Australia to the USA and Australian carriers are not granted rights beyond Thailand to China.

Australia negotiates expanded air services arrangements with Brazil

On 23 July 2008 in a media release the Australian Minister for Transport announced that new air services arrangements had been negotiated by Australia with Brazil. Capacity limits have been increased and most route restrictions removed.

Cross-price elasticity of demand examples

Harvard economics professor Greg Mankiw on his weblog has been running a series of examples of how people respond to prices. Most relate to transport behaviour switches in response to the higher price of oil:

XIII NEW - switching from private jets to commercial airlines
XII NEW - switching to more fuel-efficient aircraft
XI - switching to golf carts on the street
X - switching to the train
IX - switching to small used cars
VIII - switching to on-line education
VII - switching to scooters
VI - switching to a home closer to a rail station
V - switching to mules
IV - switching to bicycles
III - switching to mass transit
II - switching to camels
I - switching to smaller cars

I have noticed the car park at my local rail station completely fill up since petrol prices started rising. Tranz Metro is responding to this by planning to increase rail fares from 1 September 2008 and ordering new trains.

Canadian competition panel considers limits on foreign investment in airlines

In June 2008 the Canadian Competition Review Panel released its report Compete to Win.

Citing the situation in Australia and New Zealand where "ninth freedom" cabotage is permitted and the limit on foreign investment in an international airline is 49% (currently 25% in Canada), the panel urges the Canadian government to adopt similar regulatory measures.

News coverage of the report appeared in an article in the National Post on 26 June 2008 and an article in the Vancouver Sun on 27 June 2008.

Submissions on Australian aviation policy review

The period for public submissions on the planned Australian National Aviation Policy Statement has closed and they are now available NEW on the web (see previous post).

Notable submissions come from Qantas (188 pages), Virgin Blue (46 pages), Emirates (8 pages) and Singapore Airlines (12 pages).

With Australia being in close geographic proximity to New Zealand, some of the points made by Qantas about exchanging traffic rights are particularly interesting:

"1.1.4 Additional policy considerations

...

We recognise that increased competition has contributed to driving efficiencies and strengthening the competitive ability of the Australian aviation industry more broadly.

We note, however, that Australia’s policy contains a delicate balance of competing interests, and relies heavily on market efficiency principles that do not always recognise the harsh realities of international aviation, including the lack of a level playing field, and the complexity of the bilateral system. In particular, we believe that the Government should have regard to the following considerations when implementing policy to achieve further liberalisation.

1.1.4.1 Australia has limited leverage

Australia’s market size and relatively remote ‘end-of-line’ location combine to limit the leverage it can bring to bear in seeking expanded market access rights for our airlines. Indeed, Australia has few “high value cards” left to play when trading rights of access under the bilateral system. It is important that this leverage be conserved and, when deployed, used to maximise commercial opportunities for Australian carriers. This principle should guide any future consideration of access to the trans-Pacific route.

1.1.4.2 Hub carriers have significant natural advantages

Under the bilateral system, hub carriers such as Emirates, Singapore Airlines, Malaysia Airlines and Cathay Pacific can more readily combine third and fourth freedom rights in both directions to exercise sixth freedoms.

By contrast, Australian carriers, being end-of-line operators, often lack the rights needed from third countries to replicate many of the beyond point services operated by hub carriers. For this reason, reciprocal exchanges of rights do not necessarily result in equivalent improved commercial opportunities for Australian carriers.

This characteristic of the bilateral framework underscores the importance of careful sequencing of liberalisation. Qantas has consistently advocated liberalisation in end-of-line markets before hubs, to maximise Australia’s leverage and offset the hub carrier advantage inherent in the bilateral system."

The Avro Vulcan finds a new fan at Farnborough

The 2008 Farnborough International Airshow is just finishing up with its usual displays of spectacular flying. One piece of writing about the Show caused me some amusement - a post by Flight International journalist Kieran Daly on his weblog Unusual Attitude:

"When I wrote on 18 August 2006 that 'I've got my own doubts about how much money can be justified to keep large jets flying' I may have inadvertently given the impression that I had doubts about how much money could be justified to keep large jets flying.

"Having spent a gloriously unproductive ten minutes at Farnborough this afternoon watching an Avro Vulcan fly ... I would like to assure readers that I think the amount of money appropriate for keeping Vulcans flying is, basically, whatever it takes.

I apologise for any confusion that may have been caused."

The ex RAF Avro Vulcan concerned is XH558 restored by the Vulcan to the Sky Trust. Video clips of the aircraft's flying displays are available on YouTube.

For the story of RAF Vulcans in action over the Falkland Islands I thoroughly recommend reading the book "Vulcan 607" by Rowland White.

I confess to mixed feelings about old aircraft being restored to fly. All too often they crash with tragic consequences. I was fortunate enough to attend the Farnborough Air Show in 1986.

The symbols of nationhood

For some time I have been looking for the origin of a sometimes used quote about "flag" carriers. This from Time magazine in an article on 12 October 1970, reporting on Austrian Airlines and Swissair (since replaced by Swiss International after the latter made massive losses) is the earliest that I have found so far:

"Along with a flag and an anthem, the symbols of nationhood all too often include a money-losing national airline. Since 1950, the number of "flag" carriers has proliferated to the point that there are almost as many as there are countries in the U.N."

If anyone finds a similar earlier quote please let me know.

New Zealand Commerce Commission investigating alleged air cargo rate fixing

On 16 July 2008 the New Zealand Commerce Commission issued a media release announcing that it was filing criminal charges against Cathay Pacific Airways, Singapore Airlines Cargo and Aerolineas Argentinas. These airlines are alleged to have not provided information and documents during an investigation into allegations of price-fixing and other anti-competitive conduct in the air cargo industry.

The New Zealand Herald carried a report about this action on 16 July 2008, including comments from Cathay Pacific and Air New Zealand.

On 28 June 2008 the Herald reported on a related very large settlement reached by some international airlines with the US Justice Department described as "the highest total amount of fines ever imposed in a criminal antitrust investigation."

ICAO resources on the economic regulation of international air transport

Buried in the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) web site are some very useful resources for those interested in studying trends in the economic liberalisation of inter-government restrictions on international airlines. These have been prepared by ICAO's Montreal-based Air Transport Bureau.

For example, in an Economic Regulation section of the web site there is the updated 7 March 2008 version of a 13-page paper "Overview of Trends and Developments in International Air Transport".

In a Databases and Studies section there are, for example, the results of a survey of member States on Airline Ownership and Control and databases on Economic Regulation. The latter includes liberalization case studies, a new summary of regulatory actions on major international airline alliances (complete with links), a list of regional/plurilateral agreements and arrangements for liberalization and a list of government-owned and privatized airlines.

Airlines looking for government support in hard times

With the price of jet fuel having doubled in 12 months and a weakening global economy, the international airline industry is "battening down the hatches" by cutting services, laying off skilled staff and grounding older, less fuel-efficient aircraft.

It will not necessarily always be a case of "creative destruction" or "survival of the fittest." Past history would suggest that many "flag" carriers will again look to survive through government intervention. All around the world there are already signs of this happening:

In South America - on 17 July 2008 Reuters reported that the Argentine government is to takeover Aerolineas Argentinas from the Spanish travel group Marsans.

In Asia - on 10 July 2008 The Times reported that it understood Air India is seeking a "rescue finance package" from the Indian government of UK Pounds 270 million.

In Oceania - on 14 July 2008 Pacific Magazine reported on the latest developments with respect to the finances of Air Tahiti Nui. Note the reference to the airline's 16th recapitalisation being approved last year.

In Europe - on 15 July 2008 Reuters reported that the European Commission has received a reply to its concerns about the Euro 300 million loan from the Italian government to Alitalia.

In Africa - on 16 July 2008 SABC News reported that South African Airways says it needs another Rand 5.7 billion in government funding to reduce its debts.

In North America - the US Air Transportation Stabilization Board continues its existence and Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection provides a safeguard for US airlines.

Meanwhile in the Middle East some of the major Gulf airlines simply do not report their losses and their aircraft orders continue unabated. A 15 July 2008 Wall Street Journal article, with some more positive news from the global airline industry, suggests that Etihad Airways will miss its target of breaking even by 2010.

Finally, tongue in cheek, referring to this poster about a government funded air service means that I have all continents covered!

ICAO aviation carbon emissions calculator

The Environmental Unit of the International Civil Aviation Organization's Air Transport Bureau has a couple of noteworthy resources for those interested in aviation and the environment issues.

In April 2008 an ICAO Carbon Emissions Calculator was released. It provides a calculation for the carbon foot print of a passengers based on entering the city of origin and destination, and class of travel. It will be interesting to see what uptake there is of this.

To me what was of more interest was the 14-page methodology paper that was released when the calculator was launched (see previous post).

Another resource available on the ICAO web site is the 260-page ICAO Environmental Report 2007 (this is an 11.31 MB download).

European Parliament votes to include international air transport in emissions trading system

On 8 July 2008 the European Parliament voted 640 to 30 in favour of including international civil aviation within the European Union's Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) confirming the agreement reached between the Parliament and the Council in June (see previous post). A press release from the Parliament outlines what was decided and the text as adopted is now available on the European Parliament's web site.

A press release from the European Commission welcomed the second reading vote. Reactions from IATA, the Association of European Airlines (AEA), the European Low Fares Airline Association (ELFAA) and, more colourfully, from Ryanair were less positive to put it mildly. Of more interest will be the reaction of the United States government, given that it has questioned the legality of aspects of what is proposed.

Australia negotiates new air services arrangements with Kenya and South Africa

A 28 June 2008 statement by the Australian Minister for Infrastructure, Hon Anthony Albanese, has announced that Australia has negotiated its first air services agreement with Kenya and substantially expanded the route and capacity rights in its air services arrangements with South Africa (see recent post).

EU Governments reach provisional deal with European Parliament on "cap and trade" for aviation

A Reuters story dated 27 June 2008 reports that European Union member states have reached a provisional agreement with the European Parliament and Commission on rules to govern emissions trading including aviation not only within the EU but on flights between EU member states and third countries. A press release from the European Parliament dated 27 June 2008 outlines details of the proposed scheme. Agreement was reached just before the end of the Slovenian Presidency (see previous post).

The Bush Administration in the United States, amongst others, has been opposed to the proposed measure.

Hong Kong and the Philippines agree to increased air capacity

Xinhua reported on 26 June 2008 that Hong Kong SAR and the Philippines have agreed to increase capacity on air services.

On the same day there was also a press release NEW from the Philippines Department of Transportation and Communications.

Brazil and the United States agree to air capacity and routes expansion

In a statement dated 26 June 2008 the US Secretary of Transportation, Mary Peters, has announced an expansion of the air services arrangements between Brazil and the United States of America. Allowable airline capacity is increased by just under 50%, five new destinations are made available in Brazil for US airlines and some third-country code sharing is permitted. Some further detail is given in a media note issued on 27 June 2008 by the US State Department.

Brazil is one of an increasingly small number of major markets that the USA has not been able to gain agreement to "open skies" arrangements. Other notable ones are Japan and China.

South Africa making progress implementing 2006 Airlift Strategy

A 23 June 2008 story in Business Day reports on South Africa's good progress in implementing its Airlift Strategy 2006 (see previous post). South Africa is reported to have recently negotiated new air services arrangements with the United Kingdom (a substantial capacity increase), Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, South Korea, Gambia and New Zealand. South Africa is also reported to be in negotiations with Australia, India and the Netherlands.

India and Japan agree to increase air capacity from 2010

On 20 June 2008 the Government of India announced details of new air services arrangements that it has negotiated with Japan to provide for a doubling of airline capacity in 2010.

An extension of the second runway at Narita airport is planned to provide for increased capacity at Tokyo's main international airport from 2010.

Charter flights between the Chinese mainland and Taiwan to increase

On 13 June 2008 Xinhua reported on the signing of an agreement between two NGOs, the mainland's Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS) and the Taiwan-based Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF), that will see charter flights between the Chinese mainland and Taiwan substantially increased.

The United Arab Emirates concludes six new sets of air services arrangements

The United Arab Emirates has recently concluded new air services arrangements with Lithuania (announced 4 March 2008), Greece (announced 24 March 2008), Eritrea (announced 21 April 2008), Libya (announced 1 May 2008), Luxembourg (announced 24 May 2008) and Syria (announced 20 June 2008)(see previous post).

Canada reaches new air transport agreement with Panama

On 19 June 2008 the Canadian Ministers of Transport and Foreign Affairs announced that Canada had reached a new air transport agreement with Panama.

Forthcoming European Union - New Zealand air services negotiations welcomed

On 19 June 2008 media statements welcoming the forthcoming European Union-New Zealand air services negotiations were released by the New Zealand Minister of Transport, Hon. Annette King, and the Canberra-based European Union Ambassador to New Zealand, Bruno Julien (see previous post).

Transcripts of Air New Zealand's select committee appearances

The report of the Finance and Expenditure Committee of the New Zealand Parliament into the Financial Statements of Air New Zealand Limited for 2006/07 is available on the web as a .pdf file. Air New Zealand appeared before the Committee on 2 April 2008 and the report includes a full transcript of the hearing. I sat in on the public part of the meeting.

The previous appearance by Air New Zealand before the Committee was on 8 December 2004. The related report also includes a full transcript.

The second death of the US airlines

Holman W. Jenkins, Jr. commenting in The Wall Street Journal of 18 June 2008 offers two solutions to the problems facing the US airline industry:

• Repeal the limit on foreign ownership.
  
• Admit ... anti trust laws don't have all the answers.

The world gets bigger

Economist Paul Krugman has a short commentary in the New York Times dated 17 June 2008 noting the likely negative impact of the high price of oil on transport costs and international trade.

European Commission mandated to negotiate air services agreement with New Zealand

The European Council announced that at its meeting on 13 June 2008, chaired by Slovenia, that it granted a mandate to the Commission to negotiate air services agreement with New Zealand and separately Australia:

"In addition, the Council of Ministers conferred a mandate to open negotiations with Australia and New Zealand on the conclusion of comprehensive agreements on air traffic, aiming at closer cooperation between the Community and these two countries. The mandate conferred today includes, for the first time in history, a stronger commitment by this sector to environmental issues; it also enhances cooperation between the EU and the third countries in the area of greenhouse gas emissions."

EU-New Zealand air services negotiations?

On the agenda for the Council meeting of European Union transport ministers in Luxembourg on Friday, 13 June 2008 is whether to grant the European Commission mandates to open negotiations with New Zealand and separately Australia on comprehensive air transport agreements.

Airline capacity changes in the USA

The news of late with respect to the US airline industry has generally been bleak. As the price of jet fuel keeps climbing, airlines are either announcing lay-offs and fleet groundings (for example, American, Continental, Delta and United), or in some cases their financial collapse (for example, Aloha and ATA Airlines).

USA Today has published an interactive graphic showing changes in airline seat capacity since October 2007 projecting forward to October 2008 on a states-by-state and airport-by-airport basis. The newspaper is keeping the graphic updated.

The sources for the data is OAG.

Three key US economic indicators

The Dallas Morning News has published excellent graphics highlighting three key economic indicators for the United States focused on the period from 1960 onwards (.pdf files):

• Trade deficit
• Budget deficit
  
• National debt
  

Kenya and the USA initial "open skies" agreement

On 30 May 2008 the US State Department announced that Kenya and the United States had initialled an "open skies" air transportation agreement, to be phased in over three years.

This will be the 91st such relationship for the United States.

ASEAN moves further towards a single aviation market

As the three-day 25th Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Senior Transport Officials Meeting (STOM) reached its conclusion in Lapulapu City, Cebu, on 29 May 2008 the Philippine Information Agency announced that ASEAN senior transport officials had agreed to recommend signing the ASEAN Multilateral Agreement on the Full Liberalization of Air Freight Services and Air Services.

The senior transport officials among the 10-member ASEAN nations will endorse the signing of the ASEAN multilateral agreement to the ASEAN transport leaders who will be meeting during the 14th ASEAN Transport Ministers (ATM) Meeting in November 2008 in Manila in time for the implementation of the regional integrated air transport services by December 2008.

The reported aim is to have a single aviation market for ASEAN by 2015.

Canada and the Philippines reach new air transport agreement

On 30 May 2008 at an APEC meeting in Peru the Canadian Government announced that it had reached a new air transport agreement with the Philippines.

India and Iran update air services arrangements

On 6 May 2008 the Government of India announced details of new air services arrangements that it had reached with Iran.

South Africa and Gambia sign new air services agreement

The Daily Observer reported on 12 May 2008 that Gambia and South Africa have signed a new air services agreement.

Review of Air Pacific

On 21 May 2008 the interim Fiji government announced that it was appointing a Cabinet Task Force to carry out a review of Air Pacific. The airline is 51% owned by the Fiji government, with Qantas holding a 46% stake.

Like many airlines, Fiji-based Air Pacific will be suffering from the impact of the rocketing price of oil and will be affected by the Boeing B787 delays (the airline has five on order), but the airline also has had other challenges.

On 26 May 2008 the Fiji government responded to criticism from the Association of South Pacific Airlines relating to the review by the Task Force.

The Task Force held its first meeting on 3 June 2008 and will be calling for public submissions.