31 August 2008
At least one blog had been supporting her for months.
The aviation angles? Her husband Todd has a private pilot licence, owns a Super Cub manufactured in 1958 and registered N8149D, and they have a daughter called Piper. As was the case with Democratic vice presidential candidate Senator Joseph Biden, the first clue as to who McCain might have picked came from those who follow business jet movements. John McCain, of course, was a US Navy pilot.
I have greater faith in technological solutions to civil aviation's current fossil-fuel challenge but it is clear that the aerospace and airline industries must adapt and do so quickly.
17 August 2008
16 August 2008
14 August 2008
It is interesting to compare these with the latest New Zealand forecasts (see previous post). The Australian forecasts are predicting 0.0% inbound growth in 2008 before rising 3.3% in 2009. Outbound growth from Australia is expected to be strong - 9.9% in 2008 and 8.0% in 2009.
Tourism Australia also publishes good information on Australia's aviation markets, including market share and historical seat capacity data.
10 August 2008
Airline seat capacity reducing from East Asia to New Zealand but trans-Tasman competition increasing
On 26 July 2008 the Star reported that Malaysia Airlines plans to use smaller aircraft on its services to Australia and New Zealand. It is temporarily reducing capacity to Auckland by one flight per week for a month.
On 7 August 2008 the China Post reported that EVA Airways would be suspending its operations to Auckland from 1 September 2008 and Tourism New Zealand would be closing its Taipei office.
By way of background, in 2006 Garuda ceased services from Denpasar to Auckland, and Air New Zealand ceased operations to Singapore when it extended its Hong Kong services to London and commenced services to Shanghai.
On a more positive note for seat capacity to New Zealand, on 18 July 2008 Air New Zealand commenced non-stop operations to Beijing, and Pacific Blue has announced that it will be commencing trans-Tasman services on both the Melbourne-Auckland (from 22 September 2008) and Sydney-Auckland (from 14 October 2008) routes. Emirates is reported in the NZ Herald on 8 August 2008 to be planning to introduce the A380 on services to Auckland from 1 February 2009 and increase the size of aircraft it operates to Christchurch. Royal Brunei has started operating daily to Auckland via Brisbane.
It would be hard to find many examples around the world where so many airlines are competing as on the main trans-Tasman routes.
I was intrigued to find that the key ideas in the book are neatly summarised in a presentation UPDATED (.pdf) given by the author in April 2007 that is on the UK Cabinet Office web site.
As a historian this bugs me and I was intrigued to find that someone has put an article on Wikipedia with the facts, listing the airline's fatal accidents.
An Australian Transport Safety Bureau media release dated 30 July 2008 provides an update on the B747 depressurisation incident.
QANTAS has yet to lose a jet aircraft hull and I hope it never does.
Although there have been developments since it was presented (see previous post), the paper provides good background on the issues involved and touches on the legal differences between the EU and others who question the legality of what the EU is planning to do.
To see the animation click on Gadget1 - see top left - and then press the play button. Roll your mouse pointer over individual bubbles to see the market names. Click on them to produce a label. With the trace box (right centre) selected, click on a bubble and press play (bottom left) for a year-by-year view of changes (click on the bubble again to deselect). Multiple bubbles can be selected.
I used data on great circle distances from Auckland airport (AKL)(from Great Circle Mapper) for the X axis, real GDP per capita on a PPP basis (from Gapminder) for the Y axis and New Zealand resident departure numbers (from Statistics NZ Table 3.01) for the bubbles. Note that the market concerned is where New Zealand residents have declared that they will be spending the most time on their trip - their country of main destination. (See previous post.)
08 August 2008
Now for some links:
- The official web site of the Beijing 2008 Games
- Television New Zealand's Olympics pages
- NZ Herald's Olympics pages
- stuff.co.nz Olympics pages
- NBC Olympics
- Yahoo!7 Olympics pages from Australia
- BBC Sport's Olympics pages
- International Olympic Committee
As for the aviation connection, on 18 July 2008 Air New Zealand started operating non-stop services from Auckland to Beijing.
This includes most of New Zealand's air services agreements (ASAs).
I will endeavour to compile a list of links to the ASAs and an unofficial annotation of their status.
A couple of important notes of caution though.
First, the texts are not consolidated so there may be subsequent amendments.
Second, to fully understand an air services arrangement one must almost always also read the related Memorandum of Understanding and these are generally not available on the web. They may contain quantitative restrictions on what international airlines can do and are sometimes confidential. In the case of New Zealand these less-than-treaty-status documents are held by the Ministry of Transport.
References directly relevant to international air services negotiations can be found on pages 9, 41, 55 and 75.
Also released at the same time is a related new Transport Monitoring Indicator Framework. This is very much a work in progress. When compared to Australian official transport statistics New Zealand's have been much less comprehensive. This new development should help improve the situation while being more focused on the long-term targets that the New Zealand government wishes to achieve.
For 2008 international visitor arrivals to New Zealand are forecast to grow by just 1.2% while growth in outbound overseas travel by New Zealand residents is expected to be even weaker at only 0.6%. The former is expected to rebound to 2.4% in 2009 while the latter is expected to fall further to 0.1%.
These forecasts have a good track record of accuracy. With the gyrations in the price of oil that record will really be put to the test this year.
The econometrics techniques that go into the forecasts are very through. I am part of the Delphi panel each year. My contribution is less theoretically based!
03 August 2008
On 30 June 2008 The Guardian published a number of articles about the LHC and what it is hoped to discover. (See previous post.)
On 2 July 2008 Scientific American carried an article about what five physics Nobel prize winners thought about the LHC.
On 31 July 2008 The Economist ran an article, noting the LHC's US$10 billion cost.
On 1 August 2008 The Boston Globe had a story with a magnificent set of 27 photographs from CERN of the equipment that makes up the LHC.
By way of comparison, the London Underground's Circle line is 22.5 kilometers long.
The ICAO Secretariat prepared an interesting 11-page information paper on aviation data for the meeting and made an associated presentation.
A number of the carbon calculators in use a few month ago when I looked worked on the basis of adding 9% to the great circle distance between two airports to allow for non-direct routes and delays/circling. The one from Back Aviation Solutions, which uses the OAG data base of global airline schedules, was among those that used this approach.
The UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) is commonly cited as providing official backing for using 9% (see page 34, paragraph 4 of the DEFRA methodology paper [the link is now to an UPDATED paper]).
In the absence of anything better, the New Zealand Ministry for the Environment has used this +9% factor in an official New Zealand Government calculator (see http://www.mfe.govt.nz/
Intuitively this 9% number seemed too high, at least in the New Zealand context. For example, Airways New Zealand has been making progress in reducing domestic delay, and the introduction of flexi-tracking by both Australia and New Zealand has had a significant impact on reducing fuel consumption by allowing long-haul flights in our region to take advantage of favourable jet stream winds. Of course, accurate fuel consumption should be calculated on a time rather than a distance basis.
I have followed the references through to find the origin of the +9% factor.
DEFRA cites IPCC (1999) Aviation and the Global Atmosphere, J. E. Penner, D. H. Lister, D. J. Griggs, D. J. Dokken and M. McFarland (Eds). Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (see section 220.127.116.11 at http://www.grida.no/Climate/
As I understand it, in 1992 Europe was just beginning to emerge out of the cold war and major blocks of air space were reserved for military use. One would have expected more up-to-date data to be available and sure enough Eurocontrol does seem to collect and publish it. Eurocontrol has a Performance Review Commission that produces an Annual Report, the most recent being for 2006. This includes reporting on “flight efficiency” which, for example, points to the additional distance for long-haul flights to and from Europe being significantly less than for intra-European flights (see http://www.eurocontrol.int/
Given the importance to New Zealand (and indeed the rest of the SW Pacific) of long-haul flights, this issue is of significant interest.
One wonders why this more recent information was not being used in carbon calculators and why a figure based on European experience is being applied globally. Work clearly needs to done to provide a more accurate figure for such calculations.
Intuitively I would have expected that the factor for flights across the Pacific and Indian Oceans to be much lower (possibly even negative?).
On 1 April 2008 Flight International reported that ICAO has been looking at standards for carbon calculators (see previous post). The answer that ICAO came up with is to take the great circle distance then add 50km for flights of less than 550km, add 100km for flights between 550km and 5500km, and add 125km for flights above 5500km.
It analyses existing data visualisation tools and techniques, covering dashboards, sparklines, search clouds, mindmap searching and treemaps, as well as Gapminder and Nationmaster. Also covered are stories created through user input and improving static two-dimensional graphs.
To see the animation click on Gadget1 - see top left - and then press the play button. As with Gapminder World animations, roll your mouse pointer over individual bubbles to see the market names. Click on them to produce a label. With the trace box (right centre) selected, click on a bubble and press play (bottom left) for a year-by-year view of changes (click on the bubble again to deselect). Multiple bubbles can be selected.
I used data on great circle distances from Auckland airport (AKL)(from Great Circle Mapper) for the X axis, real GDP per capita on a PPP basis (from Gapminder) for the Y axis and New Zealand visitor arrival numbers (from Statistics NZ Table 2.01) for the bubbles.